Use Ffogger, our free football betting program, to calculate fair football odds, simply based on the number of average goals you expect for home and away team.
Have you ever asked yourself any of the following questions:
- My bookie cites some odds – how can I know how good these are?
- Is there any relation between the win/draw/win odds and the odds in the goal markets?
- Assuming that, after inclusion of home advantage, home and away team are equally strong – what would be the fair odds?
On their own, all these questions are notoriously hard to answer or can not be answered at all; e.g., the answer to the 3rd question does not only depend on the relative strength of both teams, but also on their absolute strength, since two equally low scoring teams are more likely to draw than two equally high scoring teams. Fortunately, it has been shown that football can be described by Poisson statistics, based on the numbers of goals each team scores; therefore, all questions reduce to one rather simple question:
How many goals do I expect for each of the teams on average?
If you can answer this question, Ffogger will help you answering all the others questions by applying bivariate Poisson statistics. See Modelling football for more information.
To help you getting used to thinking in average goals, Ffogger comes with an additional tool, Ffogger Input Helper, which calculates values for average goals from your bookmaker’s “to keep clean sheet” markets.
If you like Ffogger, check out Ffogger Pro, which uses the same methods and calculates fair odds for many more markets.